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Suppose you wake up one morning, and notice that your bedside lamp will not turn on. It is possible the lamp is broken, or that the electricity to your house has been turned off. You then walk into your kitchen and see that the microwave clock, which is usually visible all of the time, is not visible. You conclude that the electricity to your house has probably been turned off. Provide a Bayesian account of your decision-making process. Make sure you explain what the prior, data-generating function, data, and posterior in this scenario are.
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